Skip to main content
Michael Chui Roger Roberts  Tanguy Catlin
Which frontier technologies matter most for companies in 2026? Our annual report highlights the latest technology innovations, developments, and talent trends and their potential impact on business and society.

(PDF-9 MB)

The technology story of 2026 has moved off the screen and into the physical world. Innovation is accelerating in the power grids and chips that underpin the data center boom; in the intelligent robots that embody AI; in the agentic systems discovering new chemical compounds; and in the launch pads sending thousands of satellites into orbit.

AI needs energy to scale. That’s one reason energy technologies alone drew nearly $200 billion in investment in 2025, among the highest capital influx in any technology domain. And spending on AI infrastructure doubled in a single year. These developments show that the defining questions today are not only about what technology can do. They are also about who can build the hardware and assemble the skilled workforce to deploy AI in the real world. At the same time, huge leaps were made in cybersecurity and software development—illustrating that AI is accelerating the digital frontier, too.

McKinsey’s Technology Trends Outlook 2026 examines 14 technology trends that define 2026, expanding our coverage from last year to include two new fast-emerging domains: agentic software development and AI for scientific discovery and engineering. For easier navigation, we group the trends into three broader categories: AI revolution, compute and connectivity frontiers, and cutting-edge engineering. The lines between these domains are blurring, and much of the innovation is happening in the gaps.

Research methodology

To assess the development of each of the 14 technology trends highlighted in this report, we collected data on six tangible measures of activity: search engine queries, news articles, patents, research publications, equity investment, and talent demand. We updated the data sources and keywords for 2026. For each metric or vector, we used a defined set of data sources to identify keyword occurrences associated with each trend, screened those occurrences for valid mentions of activity, and indexed the resulting mention counts on a scoring scale of zero to one relative to the trends studied. The innovation score combines the patents and research scores; the interest score combines the press mentions and search scores. (While we recognize that an interest score can be inflated by deliberate efforts to stimulate news and search activity, we believe that each score fairly reflects the extent of discussion and debate about a given trend.) Investment measures the flow of funds from capital markets to companies linked with the trend. Data sources for the scores include the following:

  • Patents. Data on patent filings are sourced from Google Patents, which highlights data on the number of patents granted.
  • Research. Data on research publications are sourced from The Lens.
  • News. Data on news articles are sourced from Factiva.
  • Searches. Data on search engine queries are sourced from Google Trends.
  • Equity investment. Equity investment data are sourced from PitchBook and include data on private-market and public-market capital raises across venture capital and corporate and strategic M&A, including joint ventures; private equity investments, including buyouts and private investment in public equity; and public investments, including IPOs. Investment data does not include corporate capital and operational expenditures.
  • Talent demand. The number of job postings is sourced from McKinsey’s proprietary Organizational Data Platform, which stores licensed, de-identified data on publicly available professional profiles and job postings. Data are drawn primarily from English-speaking countries.

In addition, we updated the selection and definition of trends from last year’s report to reflect the evolution of technology trends:

  • Last year’s AI trend is now AI infrastructure and model architectures to more accurately reflect the foundational technologies that underpin AI. Last year’s digital trust and cybersecurity is now cybersecurity and trustworthy systems, highlighting how advances in AI require security to be continually woven into integrated hardware and software systems. And last year’s future of bioengineering is now future of life sciences and bioengineering, which more fully reflects advances across the life sciences spectrum.
  • Two newly highlighted trends join this year’s report: agentic software development and AI for scientific discovery and engineering. These new trends reflect the outsize impact AI has had in these areas, having already fundamentally altered how software is built and beginning to change how scientific research and engineering gets done.
  • A trend from last year, cloud and edge computing, is not included in the 2026 report. These technologies have matured and become widely adopted, and while there is continuing innovation in the space, its measured levels are not as high as they are for more frontier trends.

For equity investment insights into the future of space technologies and quantum technologies trends, we built on research from McKinsey’s Aerospace & Defense Practice and McKinsey’s 2026 Quantum Technology Monitor report.1“McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor 2026: A commercial tipping point,” McKinsey, April 28, 2026.

We used insights gathered from expert interviews to assign enterprise-wide adoption scores (on a scale of one to five) for each trend. The scores are defined as follows:

  • 1—Frontier innovation. This technology is still nascent, and few organizations are investing in or applying it. It is largely unproven in a business context.
  • 2—Experimentation. Organizations are testing the functionality and viability of the technology with small-scale prototypes, typically without a focus on a near-term ROI. Few companies are scaling or have fully scaled the technology.
  • 3—Piloting. Organizations are deploying the technology in the first few business use cases, via pilot projects or limited implementation, to test its feasibility and effectiveness.
  • 4—Scaling in progress. Organizations are scaling the deployment and adoption of the technology across the enterprise.
  • 5—Fully scaled. Organizations have fully deployed and integrated the technology across the enterprise. It has become the standard and is being used at a large scale as companies have recognized the value and benefits of the technology.

The report is based on extensive quantitative analysis. We measured metrics on innovation, investment, interest, talent demand, and organizational adoption (see sidebar “Research methodology”). It also draws on qualitative interviews with business leaders, policymakers, investors, and experts across sectors and geographies. The technologies included in this report were selected based on their rate of innovation, as well as their growing applicability and potential to influence how we live and work (see sidebar “How we chose the trends”).

Four of this year’s trends are AI specific, but AI also underpins and amplifies the other ten. AI has become an accelerant in robotics, creating a new class of autonomous bots capable of interacting with the world around them. AI is reshaping software development, making coders many magnitudes more productive. AI is advancing scientific discovery, helping life sciences companies discover new drugs many times faster than before. And AI is optimizing the foundations of technology infrastructure itself, changing cybersecurity operations, and catalyzing new innovations in semiconductors. These are just a few of the ways AI is shifting the sands beneath our feet.

How we chose the trends

Technological innovation is as old as humankind. But it wasn’t until recently that innovation began to improve our collective lives on a wide scale. For most of recorded history, GDP per capita grew very slowly, reaching approximately $1,500 by the early 1800s. Then innovation took off during the Industrial Revolution, creating a snowball of growth and development. Since that time, GDP per capita has grown by more than 14 times. And people haven’t just become wealthier in material terms—they’ve also experienced dramatic improvements in quality of life. In 1900, the average life expectancy of a newborn was 32 years. By 2021, this had more than doubled to 71 years. These advances were made possible by technological breakthroughs.

This report seeks to identify technology trends that will shape the next year, the next decade, and even the next century. These trends are not flash-in-the-pan innovations but rather key enablers of change that leaders should understand to help their organizations evolve and grow. The resulting list is meant to be useful, not perfect or complete. For any organization, there may be other trends (or subtrends) that are particularly relevant to its sector. Some trends might demand immediate action and investment; others might be worth monitoring.

Using quantitative and qualitative research, we identify technologies with high levels of innovation and whose potential impact is wide ranging (for example, spanning multiple industry sectors and geographies and delivering impact as either economic value or positive contributions to society) and significant (for instance, technologies that could reshape the competitive landscape).

We use several quantitative measures to identify and prioritize trends, but the analysis is not purely algorithmic. Creating the list of trends is a holistic exercise that includes in-depth interviews with leaders who set the vision for their organizations, as well as with engineers, scientists, and practitioners doing the hard work in the field. Through this qualitative lens, we strive to identify trends that resonate with leaders, even if the technologies are not mutually exclusive (indeed, these trends overlap in many ways).

We measure the level and trajectories of innovation across trends through patents and papers. The level of financial investments is an indication of their potential impact, as reflected in the allocation of market capital. Measures of interest (including web searches and press mentions) indicate both the breadth and depth of applicability. These metrics, while necessarily imperfect, are directional indicators.

Historically, technological innovations have underpinned advancements in individual and societal well-being. We expect that the technology trends in this report will contribute substantially to a future wave of progress, helping address some of the major challenges facing today’s societies. Technology trends could accelerate productivity and economic growth, reskill workforces for the future, improve human longevity and health, and transition energy systems to create more abundance and sustainability.

Beyond the AI ecosystem, many of this year’s trends are being shaped by large-scale economic, geopolitical, and workforce transitions. Scientists and engineers are discovering new possibilities in therapeutics, diagnostics, genomics, and brain science. Robotics, mobility, and immersive-reality technologies are converging to reshape how humans interact with digital and physical systems. Sustainability technologies are transforming how energy is produced, managed, and used—providing potential solutions to meet surging power demand from data centers. And quantum computing continues to advance, giving a glimpse into how it could soon solve problems that would otherwise be infeasible.

This breakneck pace of change comes with challenges. Organizations are racing to deploy AI at scale without any proven road maps. They have workforces that need upskilling, legacy systems that need updating, and networks exposed to ever-evolving security risks. They face shortages in energy, talent, and capital. Overcoming these roadblocks requires far more than just deploying technology. It requires rewiring operational models from the inside out.

New and notable

With so much happening across so many technologies, it’s not easy to identify what matters most. But across all 14 trends, five themes kept surfacing—ones we think all leaders need to understand to steer their organizations into the future.

Machines are being given more autonomy

AI has already transformed screen-based workflows—generating answers, drafting documents, and summarizing calls—and is rapidly advancing into an agentic era, in which it will complete many end-to-end digital tasks on its own. Agentic AI is becoming the connective tissue of the enterprise, with agents working alongside humans, changing not just tools but operating models. Physical AI is the next frontier. Making the jump to the real world, AI is adding perception, reasoning, and action across robotics, mobility, and wearables. General-purpose robots are being trained to learn about their environments so they can execute complex tasks and navigate unpredictable environments. Vehicles can make real-time decisions without drivers. Industrial systems can produce complex goods inside “dark factories” with no humans present. And immersive-reality headsets are interacting in real time with both wearers and the outside world. Physical AI is arriving first in manufacturing and logistics, where the economics are clearest. But the trajectory points well beyond the factory floor, toward hospitals, construction sites, farms, and city infrastructure.

AI is generating breakthroughs faster than we can absorb them

In biopharma, AI can now propose thousands of drug candidates in the time it once took to generate a handful. But it can’t compress the years of wet-lab validation, clinical trials, and regulatory review that follow. In software, AI is producing code faster than human systems can review, test, and deploy it securely, filling enterprise systems with brittle code. In materials science, promising compounds are arriving faster than labs can synthesize and validate them. AI is the most powerful accelerant in recent history. Its speed is also its biggest obstacle.

The cyber defense window has compressed

For decades, the cat-and-mouse game of cybersecurity played out over days and weeks, giving defenders time to find and fix vulnerabilities before attackers could fully exploit them. AI has eliminated that buffer. More than three-quarters of all cybersecurity vulnerabilities are currently classified as “zero day,” meaning that by the time they are publicly disclosed, an exploit has already been developed.1“Zero Day exploitation pressure,” Zero Day Clock, accessed September 4, 2026. Thus, while AI is helping security teams find and fix vulnerabilities faster, it is also helping attackers find and exploit them faster. Anthropic’s handling of Claude Mythos Preview reflects this duality. The model identified thousands of potential security flaws. So rather than release the model publicly, Anthropic gave a limited group of defenders gated access through Project Glasswing to identify, validate, and patch the vulnerabilities.2“Project Glasswing: An initial update,” Anthropic, May 22, 2026.

Hardware and software are being codesigned for differentiated AI workloads

General-purpose chips have long powered everything from laptops to data centers. AI changed that. Training models and then running them at scale (what’s known as inference) demands something more specialized: chips optimized for specific workloads. Inference is overtaking training as the dominant AI workload. As model architectures continue to evolve, new application-specific chips are being designed to deliver inference on those models more efficiently, providing more output per watt at a lower cost. This is critical, as data centers’ energy demand is increasingly straining power grids. Hyperscalers are investing heavily to build data centers and have much to gain from faster, higher-performance chips. Thus, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are increasingly partnering with semiconductor firms to codesign custom silicon tailored to their AI models—and some are exploring ways to offer these chips to outside customers as competitive products. (In the chip industry, the customer is becoming an alternative supplier.) But these new-format chips are not just affecting the semiconductor sector. They are changing how physical AI infrastructure is designed and transforming the business models of the equipment makers and energy suppliers that support these build-outs.

AI is hungry, and the grid is not ready

The race to deploy AI at scale has run headlong into a constraint that hyperscaler ingenuity cannot entirely solve: power. US data centers running AI workloads alone are projected to consume as much electricity by 2030 as California does today.3“The next big shifts in AI workloads and hyperscaler strategies,” McKinsey, December 17, 2025. Globally, the numbers are even larger. The problem is not just how much power AI needs but how hard it is to deliver. Data centers can be built faster than the transmission lines, substations, and transformers needed to power them can be supplied. Supply chain constraints are often to blame. In many markets, transformers now carry lead times of more than two years. More than 2,500 gigawatts of energy projects are stalled in grid queues worldwide, waiting for connections that may be years away.4“Global electricity demand is set to grow strongly to 2030, underscoring need for investments in grids and flexibility,” IEA, February 6, 2026. For enterprises, securing reliable compute power is becoming as much a competitive advantage as securing talent or capital.

When measuring talent demand, we see signals that some trends are maturing and selectively scaling. In connectivity, cybersecurity, energy, life sciences, and mobility, more than half of job listings were for non-R&D roles such as general and administrative, operations, and sales and marketing. While these trends are still driven by innovation, deployment is underway. Companies are now applying these technologies in use cases with commercial viability. Meanwhile, in all four AI-related trends plus application-specific semiconductors, over 75 percent of jobs posted were in the R&D category, illustrating just how early these sectors are, despite rapid growth in the past few years.

Investment metrics provide insight into the technology trends that have captured the most conviction, yet closed deals are more of a signal than a forecast. We thus measured investment amounts in the first half of 2026 for each of the 14 trends and extrapolated current growth rates for the full year to provide a forward-looking view of where the trends are headed. Five of the trends—agentic software development, AI infrastructure and model architectures, AI for scientific discovery and engineering, the future of space technologies, and the future of robotics—are on track to receive more than double the investment in 2026 compared with 2025 (exhibit). And all trends, except advanced connectivity, are on track to generate higher year-over-year funding totals. These findings show that investors are betting strongly on frontier technologies to deliver value over the coming years.

The 14 technology trends shaping 2026 show how quickly new innovations can shift business objectives, global markets, and ways of working. Not even the most talented technologists can predict every breakthrough. But business leaders who understand the patterns behind technological change will be equipped to shape the future rather than react to it.

Michael Chui is a senior fellow in McKinsey’s Bay Area office, where Roger Roberts is a partner; and Tanguy Catlin is a senior partner in the Boston office.

The authors wish to thank the following McKinsey colleagues for their contributions to this research Alex Devereson, Alex Peluffo, Alizee Acket-Goemaere, Andreas Breiter, Ani Kelkar, Anna Granskog, Anton Lysenko, Anuj Nigam, Ashley Park, Batu Demir, Berksu Durmaz, Bill Wiseman, Brendan Gaffey, Brooke Stokes, Charlie Lewis, Christian Jansen, Dan Tinkoff, Daniel Wallance, David Champagne, Dev Patel, Elizabeth Ouyang, Erika Stanzl, Fan Gao, Gaurav Agarwal, Gemma D’Auria, Hamza Khan, Henning Soller, Henry Marcil, Holli Dobay, Ian Whalen, Ichiro Otobe, Jas Wheeler, Jeff Algazy, Jenna Brown, Jenny Chen, Jeremy Schneider, Julian Fuchs-Souchon, Kabir Ahuja, Kevin Catalon, Kevin Wei Wang, Lieven Van der Veken, Marc Sorel, Mark Patel, Martin Harrysson, Martin Wrulich, Martina Gschwendtner, Matt Higginson, Mingyu Guan, Naveen Sastry, Oana Cheta, Pankaj Sachdeva, Pepe Cafferata, Philipp Kampshoff, Prakhar Dixit, Pranita Sadavarte, Ruth Heuss, Sambhav Sharma, Sarah Abebe, Scott Smith, Sebastian Kluger, Shiv Shah, Shradha Pruthi, Stephen Xu, Steven Begley, Tara Balakrishnan, Thomas Devenyns, Tiffany Jenkins, Timo Möller, Vinayak HV, Vishal Agarwal, Wings Zhang, Yannan Collins, and Yvonne Ferrier.


Special thanks to McKinsey Global Publishing and Brand Marketing colleagues Dan Spector, Diane Rice, Drew Holzfeind, Eliza Cooper, Janet Michaud, Katie Shearer, Kristi Essick, Loriana Mitchell, Mary Gayen, Richard Johnson, Ron Nurwisah, Sarah Thuerk, and Stephen Landau for making this report come alive.

Explore a career with us
Related Articles
Relatório - Pesquisa MGI
The race takes off in the next big arenas of competition
Relatório - Pesquisa MGI
Catalyzing competitiveness: Where investment happens and why
Artigo
Accelerating Europe’s AI adoption: The role of sovereign AI